What’s happening in Montreal with the Kyoto Protocol?

Montreal is the place to be right now if you are involved in any way with climate change policy. November 26th marked the opening of the 11th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1st Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Kyoto Protocol. Approximately 10,000 people from around the world have registered for the meetings, which run through the end of this week. Since the Kyoto Protocol entered into force last February, this is the first time Parties have met on its implementation.

Global warming issues have always been a strong mix of technical and policy issues. That seems to have coalesced into some interesting timing for the Montreal meetings. On the technical side, we've seen some significant scientific announcements just in the last two weeks preceding the meetings (more information is available online) which reinforce scientific concerns about the future. On the political side, however, Canada’s government collapsed on the first day of the COP/MOP. An election campaign is now in full swing -- a distraction at best, and certainly a ready-made excuse for lack of progress at the COP/MOP. With the U.S. actively blocking discussion of what happens after the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period ends in 2012 (which participants anticipated would be a key meeting objective), there will indeed be little high-level progress.

Coincidentally or not, two major announcements from the United States were delayed, at least to this week. First, release of California’s initial strategy for accomplishing Governor Schwarzenegger’s ambitious emissions reduction targets was postponed until this week, apparently to fix some numerical problems. Second, an agreement regarding the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a coalition of Northeastern states, hit a snag when Massachusetts Governor Romney expressed concern about potential ratepayer costs. It’s unclear whether we should expect announcements on RGGI before the COP/MOP adjourns.

You might ask, then, what 10,000 people are doing in Montreal over the course of these two weeks? Well, the COP/MOP does have items on the diplomatic agenda in addition to the post-2012 issue I mentioned. Some 2,000 -- 3,000 governmental representatives are working from dawn to dusk -- and into the evenings -- on many issues relating to the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Perhaps the issue with the highest profile is so-called Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) reform, with the objective of permitting more mitigation projects under the Kyoto Protocol.

There are also several thousand nongovernmental observers from around the world, and some 150 "side events" on all kinds of technical and policy issues. A huge amount of information is available at a conference like this, reflecting quite a bit good thinking about climate change issues. Unfortunately, relatively little of it filters through to the governmental delegates.

And let’s not forget the press. There are probably at least a couple thousand registered press representatives, struggling to find real news stories coming out of the meetings.

The bottom line is that there is a huge collection of expertise and positive intent in Montreal. Hopefully, delegates will make progress in technical areas, including CDM reform. But with the United States on the sidelines of the Kyoto Protocol -- and pretty much rejecting any discussion of quantitative targets and measures after 2012 -- it is difficult to see how the Montreal meetings will be able to significantly advance climate change mitigation objectives.

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Dr. Mark C. Trexler has more than 25 years of energy and environmental experience, and has focused on global climate change since joining the World Resources Institute in 1988. He is now president of Trexler Climate + Energy Services, which provides strategic, market, and project services to clients around the world.

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