I wasn't able to write last week because in the run-up
to deadline, I was in the emergency room with my son, Max, who had
broken his arm. He's fine now with a cool bionic waterproof cast that
will allow him at least to splash in the water.
His accident got me thinking about this week's
leverage point -- No. 7 of 12
-- which is modulating positive feedback loops to avoid a system going
chaotic. Understanding the interplay between positive and negative
feedback loops will be crucial to our ability to create a social and
economic
New Normal as we confront the New Normal in nature.
If a negative feedback loop is a self-regulating cycle, a positive
feedback loop is a self-reinforcing cycle. Chaos happens when positive
feedback loops overwhelm negative feedback loops.
Our current economic crisis is the result of some temporarily
out-of-whack positive feedback loops, where crazy short-term returns
generated a frenzy of speculation, driving things up until like Wile E.
Coyote, we realize that we're running on air and gravity takes over.
Bye, bye. Max's accident last week was a short positive feedback loop:
Loss of balance combined with gravity caused a slip to turn into a fall
to turn into a tumble. Eventually, friction won out over gravity . . .
and his arm.
Of course, the granddaddy of positive feedback loops is climate change.
As the planet warms it decreases its ability to cool itself in the
short run. Glaciers and ice caps melt, reducing the amount of sunlight
reflected back out into space, raising temperatures. Rising
temperatures makes tundra thaw and releases trapped methane, which has
25 times the heat-trapping capacity of CO2 . . . you get the picture.
Eventually, a new hotter equilibrium will be reached, cloud cover will
increase and reflect light, plant life will get super-giant as during
the age of the dinosaurs, absorbing more CO2 and some variant of the
cycle will start over.
Normally, these changes take place over millennia, allowing gradual
adaptation -- sort of like taking the elevator down from the 10th
floor. Our problem is that we're doing the biological adaptation
equivalent of jumping from the 10th floor and when we get to the
ground, it ain't gonna be pretty.
We don't see too many examples of positive feedback loops in buildings
themselves, though they abound in building markets. Failure to enforce
building codes can lead to growing non-compliance as developers see
their competitors not being penalized and begin reducing their
compliance. The emergence of LEED is a beneficial positive feedback
loop: As more buildings become LEED certified, more buildings want to
become LEED certified; the more people who become LEED APs, the more
people want to become LEED APs.
In addition, we have seen a very important positive feedback loop
between LEED and other standards, such as ASHRAE 90.1, the new
commercial and high-rise residential energy standard. Prior to the
emergence of LEED, 10 years went by between the 1989 and 1999 versions
of 90.1. After LEED was launched, ASHRAE updated the standard in 2001,
then 2004 and then went into a continuous improvement process, with the
latest published standard being 2007. ASHRAE's code-language green
standard 189 is releasing its third public comment draft with a goal of
final publication in January 2010. What is interesting here is that
driving a strong positive feedback loop in the adoption and improvement
of LEED, ASHRAE and other standards affecting resource consumption in
buildings can actually SLOW the positive feedback loop of unmanageable
climate change by reducing carbon pollution.
Though it may sound counter-intuitive, we need to manage the positive
feedback loop of green building growth. If we get too far ahead of the
market's ability to supply material and talent, then there will be
damaging negative feedback from economic and political interests that
are threatened by the transition to New Normal. Gandhi explained the
paradox this way: "When a leader is 100 paces ahead of her followers,
she is revered and called a visionary; when he is 1,000 paces ahead, he
is stoned and called a heretic."
Spreading information is a great way to manage positive feedback loops
and make people feel comfortable with them, which is why the new
SCIWatch tool from Scientific Conservation, the
Smart and Connected Communities endeavor of Cisco Systems and
GE's smart microgrid projects are so important at this juncture.
Right now, the USGBC is doing a fantastic job,
IMHO,
(disclosure: I am a director of USGBC) of balancing innovation with
stability in terms of continually improving the stringency of LEED as
well as improving the usability and supporting infrastructure of the
standard. I believe that the Obama Administration's green stimulus
package and support for more stringent minimum standards can accelerate
the uptake of green buildings by providing a broader base of support
for the industry.
It's a truism in Systems Dynamics that the more radically you try to
change a system, the harder the system will push back against you.
Whenever we run into the negative feedback loops embedded in the
current system that say "no, we can't" in order to slow down the
beneficial acceleration driven by the emergence of green we should
simply reply, "yes, we can!" and in the immortal words of St. Nike:
"Just do it."
Rob Watson is the executive editor of GreenerBuildings.com. You can reach Rob at rob.watson@greenerworldmedia.com or follow him on Twitter @KilrWat.
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